Do housing booms reduce fertility intentions? Evidence from the new two-child policy in China
Meng, Lina; Peng, Lu; Zhou, Yinggang
REGIONAL SCIENCE AND URBAN ECONOMICS Year: 2023 Volume: 101.0
DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2023.103920
Abstract: To ease pressure from the aging population, the Chinese government implemented a two-child policy for couples where either the husband or the wife is from a single-child family in 2014. Using this policy as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that housing booms inhibit the potential desire for more children. A one-standard-deviation increase in the housing price-income ratio decreases the probability of migrant couples’ intention to have a second child by 7.69%, with the effect being concentrated on renters. Housing booms affect couples’ desired fertility through negative income and high opportunity cost channels. (JEL code: R31, J13, J38).
