Energy
Volume 247, 15 May 2022, 123460
Policy selection based on China's natural gas security evaluation and comparison
Highlights
Evaluate China's natural gas security and make comparison with the US.
Evaluation integrates natural gas supply, demand and external factors.
Reflect long-term trend and short-term fluctuation of natural gas security.
China's natural gas security presents a U-shaped trend for a long term.
Abstract
China's energy policy increasingly emphasizes reducing coal consumption and increasing the proportion of natural gas, which has an impact on natural gas security. Although natural gas import dependence is an important index, it is only a dimension reflecting the security status of natural gas supply and demand. This paper comprehensively studies the long-term and short-term natural gas security from the perspective of supply and demand and the external environment by using annual and monthly data based on the principal component analysis method, identifying the main factors affecting natural gas supply and demand security. It is found that in 1992–2017, China's natural gas security curve is U-shaped, and at the same time, the fluctuation of natural gas supply and demand between different months in a year cannot be ignored. Further, we compare the natural gas security of China and that of the United States. It shows that China's comprehensive score of natural gas supply and demand risk is significantly higher than that of the United States. Based on these findings, this paper suggests corresponding policy implications to enhance China's natural gas security.
This paper focuses on China's natural gas security, carrying out the following research work: First, select a representative index to measure the supply and demand security status of natural gas from three aspects: supply, demand and external factors; Second, the paper proposes that the supply and demand security of natural gas should have two connotations: long-term safety and short-term safety; Third, make a natural gas security comparison between China and the United States.
Based on the analysis of Chinese data, the U-type of natural gas supply and demand security curve in China that declined first and then increased indicates that the risk of natural gas supply and demand decreased first and then increased, especially with the rapid increase of import dependence, the risk of natural gas supply and demand increases. At the same time, the fluctuation of natural gas supply and demand between different months in a year cannot be ignored. From the comparison of between China and the United States, the risk of natural gas supply and demand in China is significantly higher than that of the United States.
Therefore, for China, the policy enlightenments are as follows:
(1)To reduce the impact of risks on natural gas security, China should not only pay attention to long-term risks but short-term risks caused by emergencies, natural disasters or seasonal factors, and should further promote the construction of peak regulation system of gas storage and alleviate the contradiction between seasonal supply and demand.
(2)To avoid repeating the passive situation of “what to buy, what to raise the price” in the global commodity market, China should increase the scale of natural gas reserves and enhance the level of natural gas safety, self-control and control through domestic resource development and overseas oil and gas cooperation development.
(3)To face the complex and severe external development situation, China must continue to “go global” and promote the internationalization of China's natural gas industry. Under the guidance of the “one belt and one way” strategy, not only state-owned enterprises going global, but also private enterprises should be encouraged to go global, actively participate in the development and utilization of world oil and gas resources, and form a strong international market competition and resource organization ability.
